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FROM LEXY ↓
Hey Poker Fam! Bracelets are being won left and right. This week a PhD student who cashed for the first time at the WSOP turned it into gold. Kristen Foxen added to her legacy. The Monster Stack field broke records. And the game keeps moving. We're looking at bet sizing this week. How to adjust it based on your opponents. When not to adjust it. These are the technical decisions that separate solid players from the ones grinding without a strategy. |
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This Week in PokerThe stories shaping the game right now
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Strategy CornerThe technical decisions that separate winners
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Bet Sizing Adjustments: Exploiting Your Opponents vs. Protecting Your RangeBet sizing fundamentally comes down to one thing: maximizing your expectation on every decision. Win the most with your good hands. Lose the least with your weak hands. But how you do that changes based on who you're playing against. When to Adjust Based on Your Opponent: If you're playing against a recreational player who folds weak hands too often, you should increase your bet size. Target their weakness. They're folding the weak part of their range, so make bigger bets when you have strong hands and win bigger pots. On dry board textures, bet 20-40% because your opponent misses so often. On wet boards with draws, bet 40-75% to extract value and charge them for their draws. The foundation: bet sizing is a function of frequency. The wider your range is, the more bluffs you have in it, so you should risk fewer chips overall. Good opponents understand this. Bad opponents don't adjust to it. When NOT to Adjust—This Separates Solid Players: Never adjust your sizing based on the strength of your hand. If you bet bigger with premium hands and smaller with weak hands, smart opponents will notice immediately and exploit that pattern. That's how you become predictable. Don't adjust if you're tilted. Your emotional state shouldn't change your sizing strategy. Stick to your plan. Players who adjust based on emotion instead of strategy lose their edge. The professional separation: solid players adjust based on their read of opponent weaknesses, not their own cards. They protect their entire range with consistent sizing. Players grinding without strategy bet big when they're strong and small when they're weak—and every opponent at the table notices. |
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Clip of the WeekWhat you need to see this week
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I raise J♦-9♦ and flop a jack-high flush draw on A♠-6♦-8♦, then face a check-raise to 108k from a solid European regular—and when the turn brings a 2♠ and I find myself at a river decision with just jack-high, I made a decision on the river that may have cost me the hand. Let me know your thoughts! |
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Upcoming TournamentsWhere the action is happening
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In the Know |
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2026 WSOP Records and PredictionsPoker historian Robert Jen laid out some odds on which WSOP records might fall this year. Will bracelet counts be broken? Will prize pools go higher? Will field sizes explode again? It's hard to predict, but the trends are there if you look. Source: Poker News Poker Returns to Palms Las Vegas After 12 YearsPoker chips are flipping again at the Palms Las Vegas with the World Poker Tour's three-day event called "The Victor." After 12 years away, Poker is back at the Palms. It's a WPT show with live-stream coverage. The Palms is back in the Poker game. Source: Card Player Bally's Intralot Agrees to Acquire Evoke for $326 MillionBally's Intralot announced an all-stock acquisition of evoke plc for $326 million. The gaming landscape continues to consolidate. Major operators are buying up assets. That's how the business evolves. Source: Poker News Daily |
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Talk soon ♠
Lexy Gavin-Mather
The Poker Digest The Poker Digest · by Lexy Gavin-Mather
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