Welcome back, Poker Fam. OpenAI's AI bots just crushed a week-long Poker tournament against models from Google, Meta, and Elon Musk's Grok—using hyper-aggressive strategies that exposed fascinating flaws in how machines understand the game. Meanwhile, the Poker world mourned the loss of beloved Canadian player Gary Lucci, whose quiet presence made every table better.

This week, we're covering the AI Poker battle that has everyone talking, remembering Gary Lucci's impact on Canadian Poker, critical strategy lessons from wrong decisions, the WSOP's new competitive format coming to Europe, and what happens when bad weather destroys a major tournament guarantee.

Also Today: We're breaking down donk leading—one of the most misunderstood plays in Poker. Most players think they should never donk lead because of the name alone. But there are specific situations where leading into the pre-flop aggressor is actually the profitable move.

1. Hyper-Aggressive OpenAI Bots Reign Supreme as Silicon Poker Battle Concludes — OpenAI's AI models dominated a week-long Poker tournament featuring the biggest names in artificial intelligence, with o3 and GPT 5.2 making it to the finals in an all-OpenAI showdown. The tournament, organized by Google DeepMind/Kaggle Game Arena, pitted nine large language models against each other in $10/$20 no-limit hold'em.

Doug Polk provided coverage of the final match, noting that both OpenAI models "played similar styles, of being hyper-aggressive and looking to pounce on any weakness." GPT 5.2 emerged victorious in the finals.

The tournament exposed fascinating flaws in how AI understands Poker. In one hand, o3 three-bet with ace-deuce from the big blind—a move Polk criticized as "a pure call versus open." When GPT 5.2 four-bet, o3 shoved all-in, later explaining its reasoning by claiming that folding would give up chips already invested. "This is another common thing I've seen from the AIs," Polk explained. "If I had to go through and say what their biggest leaks are, they seem to not understand folding is 0 EV."

Meta's LLAMA model (GPT-5 mini) and Grok 4.1 Fast Reasoning were the worst performers. In one shocking hand on a 6♣J♦9♦ flop, both models got all-in with no pair and no draw—Grok had A♣10♣ and GPT-5 mini had A♦K♣. "Nobody has a pair, nobody has a draw. We're just putting in stacks," Polk observed. The models' reasoning was absurd—they thought they had nut flush draws with only three of the suit.

Polk noted that "the three hyper-aggro AIs ended up at the top of the pack," while more conservative models like Claude Opus and Sonnet "played pretty reasonable" but "were not built to withstand the hyper-aggression." While AI Poker bots have come a long way, they're still far from perfect—and definitely not ready to challenge top human pros.

Source: Poker.org

2. Canadian Poker Community Mourns Loss of Elder Statesman Gary Lucci — The Poker world received sad news over the weekend that beloved Canadian Poker player Gary Lucci had passed away. Lucci, who hailed from Amherst, Nova Scotia, was well-known in the Canadian Poker community for his steady presence and quiet humor at the tables.

Lucci accumulated $626,808 in lifetime tournament earnings according to The Hendon Mob. He also won one WSOP Circuit ring and earned $121,855 in WSOP-related events throughout his career.

Numerous players offered condolences and shared memories on social media. "A great guy who always smiled and saw joy in the game no matter if he was winning or losing," one player remembered. Trevor Delaney shared a touching tribute: "You didn't need big wins or loud moments to leave an impression. You showed up, took your seat, smiled across the table, and made the game better just by being there. Cards were your joy, Texas Hold'em was your game, but it was your patience, quiet humour, and steady presence that everyone will remember most."

Lucci represents the soul of Poker—the players who show up consistently, treat everyone with respect, and make the game better simply by being there. The table feels a little emptier now.

Source: Poker News

3. Taking Away the Right Lesson From the Wrong Decision — We've all been there: you make what looks like a bad decision, it works out anyway, and suddenly you're convinced you played it perfectly. Or worse, you make the right play based on solid Poker logic, it backfires spectacularly, and you question everything you know about the game.

This is one of the most dangerous traps in Poker—letting results dictate whether you think a decision was correct. The truth? Short-term results lie to you constantly. A terrible bluff that gets through doesn't become good strategy just because your opponent folded. And a perfectly executed value bet that runs into the nuts doesn't become a mistake just because you lost the pot.

The key is separating process from outcome. Did you make the decision based on sound reasoning—ranges, pot odds, opponent tendencies, stack sizes? Or did you just gamble and get lucky? The first approach builds long-term success. The second builds bad habits that eventually destroy your bankroll.

When reviewing hands, focus on your thought process at decision points, not the final result. Ask yourself: "Given what I knew at the time, was this the most +EV play?" If yes, run it back the same way next time, regardless of outcome. If no, figure out where your thinking broke down and fix it. That's how you actually improve.

Source: Card Player

4. Rounder Cup Brings Competitive Format to WSOP Europe 2026 Schedule — The WSOP is adding the Rounder Cup to its Europe 2026 schedule, a €2,750 No-Limit Hold'em tournament that pits European Poker players against players from around the world at King's Casino in Prague from March 31 through April 12.

The format creates an interesting dynamic where regional pride is on the line alongside individual tournament goals. European players will battle against international competition in what promises to be one of the highlighted events of the WSOP Europe series.

The Europe stop has historically been where the WSOP experiments with new tournament formats and structures before potentially bringing them to other series. The Rounder Cup represents another innovation in competitive Poker designed to create compelling matchups beyond standard tournament play.

Source: WSOP

5. Frozen Out: What Happens to a Big Guarantee When Bad Weather Hits — Bad weather can absolutely devastate a tournament guarantee, turning what should be a massive series into a financial disaster for the casino. When snowstorms, hurricanes, or other severe weather events hit during a major tournament, the guaranteed prize pools don't change—but player turnout absolutely does.

Casinos are contractually obligated to cover the guarantee regardless of how many players actually show up. So when a blizzard shuts down highways and airports, and only half the expected field makes it to the venue, the casino eats the overlay. We're talking potentially hundreds of thousands of dollars in losses for a single event.

The worst-case scenarios happen when bad weather hits during the Main Event or other flagship tournaments with seven-figure guarantees. Players who do make it to the venue benefit massively from the reduced field and massive overlay, but the casino takes a brutal financial hit.

Some venues try to mitigate this by building weather contingencies into their tournament structures—extending late registration periods, adding more Day 1 flights after weather clears, or in extreme cases, postponing events entirely. But once a guarantee is advertised, the casino is on the hook regardless of acts of God.

Source: Poker.org

Donk leading isn't always a donkey play. Here's when to lead into the aggressor.

The term "donk lead" has a negative connotation, doesn't it? Most recreational players won't even consider it because of the name alone. Who wants to be a donk—short for "donkey"—at a Poker table?

Here's the truth: donk leading is not something you should do often in no-limit hold'em. But the blanket statement "never donk lead" is just as wrong as "always check when out of position."

Why Checking is Usually Better:

When you check out of position, you're not giving away additional information about your hand. This is especially important in pots where multiple raises have been made pre-flop, because ranges are better defined.

Even if you check, you can still put in a check-raise when faced with a continuation bet. So you still have opportunities to go for value when you hit the flop or attempt a bluff. This is why leading into an aggressor is usually regarded as a bad play.

When Donk Leading Makes Sense:

As Poker has evolved, there's growing realization that donk leading can actually be profitable in specific situations. The key is having the range advantage.

For example: the player under the gun opens and you call from the big blind. The flop comes 9♠-8♥-6♦. You can donk lead profitably here because this board is much better for your range than your UTG opponent's range. They have all the overpairs, but you have way more combinations of two pair, straights, and sets.

However, you still need equity to continue barreling turns and make the bluff profitable. Your opponent still has overpairs and might stick around with A-K, especially with a backdoor flush draw. You can't expect a fold every time, so you need a hand with a reasonable chance of improving.

And obviously, don't donk lead every time the board favors your range. If you blast off in the big blind every time the flop comes low or middling cards, you're massively overbluffing.

Donk Leading on the Turn:

You can also donk lead on later streets. If you called an early position raise from the big blind and there's a flush draw on the flop that you check-called, you can reasonably lead out if the draw completes on the turn. You have more flushes in your range because you defend your big blind with more suited hands than your opponent opens from early position.

Donk Leading for Value:

Good candidates for value donk leads are strong hands that are susceptible to being outdrawn—two pair or top pair-top kicker on draw-heavy boards. If you let the flop or turn check around and one or more draws complete on the next street, you've missed your chance for a safe value bet.

In my book, I dive deeper into donk leading sizing (you need to use bigger sizes since it's a low-frequency play), how to balance your donk leading range, and why donking too often significantly weakens your checking range and makes you exploitable.

Want to master situational plays like donk leading and understand when to deviate from standard strategies? The Poker Accelerator breaks down advanced post-flop concepts including when to lead versus check, how to construct balanced donk leading ranges, and specific board textures where leading is more profitable than checking. You'll learn exactly when to apply pressure with range advantage and when to exercise pot control with marginal hands.

If you're tired of playing ABC Poker and want to add sophisticated moves to your arsenal without becoming exploitable, this course shows you precisely how to execute advanced plays correctly. Use coupon code 20PERCENT to get 20% off your enrollment.

Baumann flops top pair plus the nut flush draw and straight draw in a massive pot against Balkin—and when she calls his all-in with a monster draw, one card is all that stands between a devastating loss and an absolutely euphoric double-up!

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What's your biggest leak with donk leading? Are you doing it too often and weakening your checking range, or never doing it at all and missing profitable spots with range advantage? Reply to this email and tell me. I read them all!

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Talk soon,
Lexy Gavin-Mather